Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Predicting The Weather

When all systems fail and you are painfully reminded that "weather" is not just something you can ignore, by closing a window or changing the settings on your air condition or central heating, you will find out that weather prediction is a vital tool in your survivalist tool kit.

But you do not need a weather station or weather charts to be able to predict the next 48 hours of weather:

You can do that by using these simple guidelines to make observations, they will turn out to be fairly precise!

Indicators for improving weather:

- fog at evening

- single Cumulus clouds moving in wind direction

- very high located, strangely shaped feather clouds (Cirrus clouds) , with fast moving Cumulus clouds beneath

Cirrus Clouds

Cumulus Clouds

Indicators for good weather:

- afterglow at evening promises good weather for the coming day

- strong dew development at evening or in the first half of the night means, that you don`t have to expect rain for the following day

- high flying swallows and croaking frogs are a promise for good weather

- early fog dissolving  at dawn is a sure sign for good weather the same day

- if small fragments are tearing themselves lose from large clouds you can expect clear weather

- if compact Cumulus clouds are predominant the weather will be good and dry. If temperatures are high thunderstorms are likely.

Indicators for deteriorating/worsening weather:

- several different types of clouds appear in the sky

- a red dawn means rain at afternoon

- low flying, ragged clouds moving fast are an indicatior for rain coming soon

Indicators for bad weather:

- a low pressure is indicated by fast moving "feather clouds" (Cirrus)

- high flying "feather clouds" (Cirrus clouds)  are a sign for bad weather

- fast build up of Cumulus clouds is an indicator for rain - during summer: thunder storms.

- (for central Europe) Westerly or southerly wind are an indicator for a weather change

- if the wind comes from the same direction over a longer period, during clear sky, the likelihood for rain the following day is high

- large amounts of  grey Cumulus clouds (Stratocumulus or Cumulonimbus) are an indicator for rain coming soon

- if far away objects suddenly appear close, rain will come soon

- when stones or cliff sides are getting moist with condensation rain or snow will come soon

- lack of dew in the morning means rain later

- low flying swallows, jumping frogs and fish are indicators for deteriorating weather

- pale yellow sunset is an indicator for rain.

- a deep yellow sunset means wind or storm

- a halo around the sun or moon are indicators for long lasting rain or snow

- blinking stars are an indicator for that clear weather will turn into overcast weather with rain or snow. The stronger the blinking, the stronger the change of weather

Drop in temperature:

- cold weather is to be expected when fog is developing in lower areas during the evening and night.

- when "high fog" (low stratus)  is developing on clear, wind still days cold weather is coming

- yellow/brownish coloration of dawn indicates long lasting frost or increasing frost

Low Stratus

If all these fail...then you can always fall back on the weather stone!

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